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Understanding Anwar's Return
By Michael Alan Hamlin
September 6,2004
Malaysia's highest court reversed
a trumped up 2000 sodomy conviction of the country's former deputy
prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, last week, and ordered his release
from prison. For three decades, Anwar has been one of Malaysia's
most visible politicians, but he has done jail time before. In the
70s he was jailed after leading anti-government protests. He was
politically rehabilitated by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad
when the long-serving premier first assumed that office. That act
was a calculated move by Mahathir, probably meant to stave off future
challenges to his authority by the popular Anwar. When Anwar nevertheless
did challenge Mahathir at the height of the Asian financial crisis,
it was Mahathir who this time sent Anwar back to jail on corruption
and sodomy charges.
Arrested in 1998 and jailed throughout
the prolonged court proceedings, Anwar largely disappeared from
public view for close to six years. The party founded by Anwar's
wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, called the National Justice Party,
fared poorly in the most recent elections, partly as a result. But
also because current prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's ascension
to power and Mahathir's retirement relieved much of the pent-up
anger among Muslims stemming from Anwar's conviction. For this reason,
too, Badawi's ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO)
received a definitive mandate.
These developments beg at least two
questions. The first is whether Anwar will - and can - quickly emerge
from enforced seclusion and reclaim his former political prominence
and influence. Anwar remains a prominent political figure, but despite
the overturning of his conviction, the sordid allegations brought
against him have almost certainly hurt his credibility among many.
Indeed, after the announcement of the reversal, the still widely
admired former prime minister Mahathir said in a news conference
that he remains convinced that his former deputy is guilty.
The second question is how Anwar's
reappearance on the national stage will affect Badawi's popularity,
and that of his reinvigorated party. Once rivals, it is now said
that the two men are on much more cordial terms, and Anwar credited
Badawi with restoring judiciary independence upon his release from
prison. The prime minister, after meeting secretly with Anwar's
wife after his election, had ordered improved treatment of the former
deputy prime minister, which included moving him to a government
hospital. Will the truce hold?
Anwar has said he will seek medical
attention in Germany and has no plans to challenge Badawi politically,
although he also said that he will continue to campaign for reform.
Yet Anwar remains politically handicapped because of the corruption
conviction, which remains on appeal. Whether his constituents and
admirers will be inclined to follow his political leadership is
in question because Anwar cannot hold office. What is the use, after
all, in supporting a politician who can't hold office? It is improbable
that an electorate largely satisfied with Badawi's administration
will continue to keep Anwar's wife in office in his place.
Should the appeal be denied, Anwar
would be barred from holding office until 2008. Badawi's term conveniently
ends in 2009. And given Badawi's current credibility, a denial of
Anwar's appeal could have the effect of confirming to wavering voters
that there was more than political imperative to the corruption
charges against Anwar. Stalwarts will remain loyal nevertheless,
but probably would never realize the wherewithal to elevate Anwar
to the premiership in a battle against a popular entrenched leader.
This is especially true given the vastly inferior party infrastructure
of the National Justice Party relative to UMNO, something that's
unlikely to change.
Which brings us to the question of
Badawi's own popularity. Sentiment after the announcement of Anwar's
release suggested that the already popular premier will receive
an impressive boost as a result of the decision for a number of
reasons. First of course is the perceived fairness of the prime
minister in allowing the court to independently come to a fair and
honest decision. Second, and perhaps more importantly, however,
is the apparent perception that Badawi is so secure in his position
that he doesn't have to worry about Anwar or having to employ the
tough tactics Mahathir did in dealing with rivals.
In fact, Anwar's corruption conviction
is also likely to be thrown out. If that happens, historic precedent
suggests the possibility of a formal or apparent alliance between
Anwar and Badawi. What are the chances that Badawi would appoint
Anwar to a key post, and that Anwar would serve? Perhaps not as
far fetched as one might surmise. Then again, Anwar subverted himself
to one prime minister with ultimately disastrous results, why do
so again?
The answer to these questions will
be determined by how the two men manage their visibility. Neither
can be seen to be unfair to the other, at least not for now. Both
must be seen as visionary and honest as well as confident. Of the
two, Badawi seems to have the advantage, and certainly the synergy
of goodwill following Anwar's release. So far Badawi has shown he
can sustain that political momentum. Keeping his job will require
that he continue to demonstrate that ability.
(Michael Alan Hamlin is the managing director of
consultancy TeamAsia and the author of three books on Asian economies
and companies. His latest book is Marketing Asian Places, of which
he is a co-author (Wiley, 2001), and he is currently at work on
High Visibility: The Making and Marketing of Asian Professionals
into Celebrities. Write him at mahamlin@teamasia.com.).
Copyright © 2004 Michael Alan Hamlin. All
Rights Reserved.
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